The IEA’s World Energy Outlook (WEO 2025) was published a few months ago, we have compared it with older editions for interest. Understanding the trends driving the solar industry is key for us at Corrie and users of our Latitude 40 dual axis solar tracker.
The 2025 theme is “energy security in a volatile world,” reflecting new geopolitical tensions, critical mineral supply chains, etc. But a look back reminds us that volatility is actually common:
> 2010: recovery from the 2008-09 financial crisis.
> 2015: response to the 2014 oil price crash.
> 2020: in the depth of pandemic.
The real story isn’t volatility but calm, gradual change. Over this period, the technology forecasts were transformed, most notably for solar power.
This is the solar generation forecast for 2035 by report year (central scenario):
> 2010: 972 TWh (of which 1/3 is concentrating solar)
> 2015: 1,783 TWh
> 2025: 10,174 TWh (concentrating <1%)
That is a 10x increase in the central forecast for 2035, made in just 15 years – and not for the Net Zero scenario.
Our default trajectory has dramatically improved, driven by 2 trends:
> Electrification: Once a future concept, it is now coming to pass through EVs, heat pumps (and data centres…)
> Renewables Delivery: Solar is the “new king” – not just a climate solution but the cheapest source of new electricity in most of the world.
In evolutionary biology, we debate “gradualism versus punctuated equilibrium”: is change cumulative and incremental, or sudden and rapid? We tend to focus on the sudden shocks but looking at these numbers, there is much to say for daily progress.
At Corrie, we’re also focused on that long term change. We believe that steady, reliable innovation is the force that actually changes the world. Get in touch if you want better soutions.